The Manto Depression Risk Calculator

The Manto Depression Risk Calculator estimates the likelihood of having depression in the next two years.

Depression and its consequences

Approximately 15% of people experience depression at some point in their lives. Depression has many forms, but usually includes sadness and/or inability to experience pleasure and other symptoms such as hopelessness, changes in appetite, disturbed sleep and impaired concentration (1). Depression is the greatest cause of disability worldwide.

Older adults afflicted by depression may experience cognitive decline and be at high risk for dementia (2). Depression worsens the course of many medical illnesses and shortens people’s life span (3,4).

You may be at high risk of depression

Everyone is at risk for depression, especially when faced with life problems. Risk factors for depression in people older than 55 years include female sex, bereavement, sleep disturbances, activity limitations, and prior history of depression (5). Medical illnesses, pain and physical disability increase the risk of depression.

How Manto works

The Manto Depression Risk Calculator helps individuals and healthcare professionals to estimate a person’s likelihood to develop depression in the next two years. It is sufficient for you to answer a few questions about symptoms of depression and some other aspects of life, and you will receive an estimate of your individual risk score.

The Manto Depression Risk Calculator should be used by adults aged 55 year and older who do not have dementia or severe cognitive impairment. The risk of depression over the next 2 years can be reliably calculated even if the respondent is already depressed at the time of using the Calculator.

How is the Manto Depression Risk Calculator used?

The Manto Depression Risk Calculator calculates a risk score using information you provide about conditions that increase the risk of depression (risk factors). The risk score you receive is a percentage that indicates your chance of being at risk of having depression in the next two years. The risk calculator is based on the recent Manto study which uses data from the large SHARE European dataset (6) and has good predictive ability (AUC: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.79 - 0.82; Sensitivity: 84.3%; Specificity: 58.4%).

The Manto Depression Risk Calculator says I am at high risk: what should I do?

If your risk score is high, do not panic. Depression can be successfully treated and prevented. Treatment and prevention of depression includes combinations of psychological and pharmacological approaches (8-10). Physical exercise can also ameliorate or prevent the onset of depression (11). Several risk factors for depression can be modified (e.g. treating sleep disturbances and pain, engaging in pleasant activities).

If you think you are depressed, consult a healthcare provider.

About us

The Manto Depression Risk Calculator was developed by researchers from the University of Ferrara, the University of Bologna, the Karolinska Institute, and Weill Medical College of Cornell University. It follows recent guidelines on the detection of depression among older adults (7).

Authors of Manto study are:

Martino Belvederi Murri Institute of Psychiatry, Department of Neuroscience and Rehabilitation, University of Ferrara, Italy
Luca Cattelani University of Bologna, Department of Computer Science and Engineering
Tampere University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Technologies
University of Eastern Finland, Institute of Biomedicine
Federico Chesani Department of of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Bologna, Italy
Pierpaolo Palumbo Department of Electrical, Electronic and Information Engineering “Guglielmo Marconi”, University of Bologna, Italy
Federico Triolo Aging Research Center, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
George S. Alexopoulos Weill Cornell Institute of Geriatric Psychiatry, Weill Cornell Medicine, White Plains, NY, USA.

The Manto Depression Risk Calculator website was developed, and is maintained by:
Giacomo Piva and the ACLAI Lab taht deals with the management, intelligent analysis, and data visualization.

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  2. Byers AL, Yaffe K. Depression and risk of developing dementia. Nat Rev Neurol [Internet]. 2011 May [cited 2022 Jan 11];7(6):323–31. Available from: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21537355/
  3. Cuijpers P, Vogelzangs N, Twisk J, Kleiboer A, Li J, Penninx BW. Comprehensive meta-analysis of excess mortality in depression in the general community versus patients with specific illnesses. Am J Psychiatry. 2014;171(4):453–62.
  4. Gold SM, Köhler-Forsberg O, Moss-Morris R, Mehnert A, Miranda JJ, Bullinger M, et al. Comorbid depression in medical diseases. Nat Rev Dis Prim [Internet]. 2020 Dec 1 [cited 2022 Jan 11];6(1). Available from: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32820163/
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  8. van Zoonen K, Buntrock C, Ebert DD, Smit F, Reynolds CF, Beekman ATF, et al. Preventing the onset of major depressive disorder: a meta-analytic review of psychological interventions. Int J Epidemiol [Internet]. 2014 [cited 2022 Jan 11];43(2):318–29. Available from: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24760873/
  9. Alexopoulos GS. Mechanisms and treatment of late-life depression. Transl Psychiatry. 2019;9(1).
  10. Kok RM, Reynolds 3rd CF, Reynolds CF. Management of depression in older adults: A review. JAMA - J Am Med Assoc [Internet]. 2017;317(20):2114–22. Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28535241
  11. Belvederi Murri M, Amore M, Menchetti M, Toni G, Neviani F, Cerri M, et al. Physical exercise for late-life major depression. Br J Psychiatry. 2015;207(3):235–42.